Received Wisdom

Why do we blindly accept wide-spread theories and their widely employed practices as valid, assuming that they are well-substantiated?  I marvel at the amount of received wisdom that:

  • as it turns out, is the result of either an inspired or crazy (or crazily inspired or inspirationally crazy) person’s obsession, and
  • despite the fact that it has been disproved, has not be discarded.

And so apparently does Jonah Lehrer, a writer for The New Yorker, whose two articles, although separated by several months and covering vastly different subject matter, sound similar themes.  Cases in point:  brainstorming and casino design.

 Brainstorming

  1. large groups
  2. gobs of ideas
  3. non-judgmental environment (there are “no bad ideas”)

Apparently the central tenets of brainstorming, considered essential for generating truly breakthrough insights, were soundly debunked almost as soon as brainstorming was popularized, but that hasn’t stopped anyone from adhering to these principles or the practice.  In fact, consultancies have been founded on them, embracing them with near religious fervor.

I have to admit that the “no bad idea” rule really appealed to me as a young consultant facilitating group discussions.  It was a relatively non-confrontational way to put a lid on people who were more enthusiastic about tearing down ideas than building them up while opening up space for those who were willing to take a risk and put an idea on the table.  And the sheer quantity of ideas that were scrawled on white boards or on sticky notes that plastered the walls gave participants evidence of accomplishment as they left the working session and I benefitted from the halo effect, looking like a great consultant.

Brainstorming is the brainchild of John Osborn, a sort of Cro-Magnon mad man of advertising (the “O” of BBDO, the advertising colossus).  Osborn popularized his approach to creativity in one of several books that spread the word about his brainstorming methodology back in the 1940s.  Not long thereafter (1958) brainstorming theory was subjected to research at Yale University and that was only the beginning of “…[d]ecades of research [that] have consistently shown brainstorming groups think of far fewer ideas than the same number of people who work alone and later pool their ideas.”

It also appears that when people are encouraged to challenge each other’s ideas, groups generate more ideas.  Criticism introduces an alternative perspective that stimulates truly creative associations.  “…[T]he power of dissent is the power of surprise.” When a train of thought is derailed, it wakes people up to new possibilities.  And, it seems as if more people are just not better when it comes to group creativity.  But neither are too few.  Mix in the evidence that too much familiarity appears to be just as bad as too little shared history and it seems as if the moderate middle ground provides provide the best mix of trust and friction for groups to generate something truly new that has a good chance of commercial success.

Having thoroughly described how brainstorming has been debunked, if not dislodged, we turn to casino design.

 Casino Design

The Friedman International Standards of Casino Design:

  • Principle 1: A Physically Segmented Casino beats a Completely Open Barn
  • Principle 2: Gambling Equipment Immediately Inside Casino Entrances Beats Vacant Entrance Landings and Empty Lobbies
  • Principle 3: Short Lines of Sight Beat Extensive Visible Depth
  • Principle 4: The Maze Layout Beats Long, Wide, Straight Passageways and Aisles
  • Principle 5: A Compact and Congested Gambling-Equipment Layout Beats a Vacant and Spacious Floor Layout
  • Principle 6: An Organized Gambling-Equipment Layout With Focal Points of Interest Beats a Floor Layout That Lacks a Sense of Organization
  • Principle 7: Segregated Sit-Down Facilities
  • Principle 8: Low Ceilings Beat High Ceilings
  • Principle 9: Gambling Equipment As the Décor Beats Impressive and Memorable Decorations
  • Principle 10: Standard Décor Beats Interior Casino Themes
  • Principle 11: Pathways Emphasizing the Gambling Equipment Beat the Yellow Brick Road
  • Principle 12: Perception Beats Reality
  • Principle 13: Multiple Interior Settings and Gambling Ambiances Beat a Single Atmosphere Throughout

Who is Friedman and how did he arrive at these principles?  A former gambling addict who became a student of the environments in which he had lost so much money, Bill Friedman went on to manage a few casinos and teach some of the first university courses in casino management.  Distilling what made him tick when he gambled and what he observed about other gamblers into solid granite principles, Friedman exerted huge influence and his rules dominated casino design for an amazing run of almost 30 years.

But then, Roger Thomas, a commercial interior designer, went to work for Steve Wynn, and his design principles, sumptuously expressed at The Bellagio, were diametrically opposed to Friedman’s.  Spending upwards of $1.6 billion on lavish interior design from the casino floor to the guest rooms to the iconic fountain show (see below), Thomas violated all 13 principles.  The result was a property where the guests spent four times as much per room as the average property in Las Vegas.  Research into gambling behavior followed and, lo and behold, it turns out that people spend more money when they feel they are winners (a feeling that is reinforced by a luxurious, relaxing environment).  Even people who don’t gamble are softened up by the environment and are more likely to give it a go.

Nonetheless, in 2001, the Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming at the University of Nevada, Reno published Designing Casinos to Dominate the Competition: The Friedman International Standards of Casino Design which expounds upon the 13 essential principles that have long reigned over casino design.

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So, if brainstorming and casino design have been so thoroughly trashed, why are they still being practiced as faithfully as if they had not?  How far back do you have to step to detach sufficiently from any given frame of reference to gain enough perspective to become aware that you are holding beliefs which have been absorbed without due diligence?  Perhaps it’s a matter of having enough time and encouragement to undertake this sort of exercise and in today’s hyper-driven work world, action is prized over reflection which seems like a distraction from the business at hand.

We’ve all had experiences at the individual level when facts could not alter a decision-maker’s strong conviction, even if it was based on faulty assumptions.  But, what is striking about these two examples is that the convictions are held at a macro level and perhaps that is what makes them much harder to dispel.  The utter complexity and momentum of large systems makes it challenging to slow them down.  Until that is, they collapse under their own weight

If system collapse prompts reflection, then perhaps it’s not surprising that in some corners of the fast-paced, dog-eat-dog world of high finance which recently suffered a near total system collapse, just this imperative to confront beliefs is underway.  A body of knowledge is being constructed about the criticality of developing well-defined and explicit investment beliefs at the group level as a key driver of investment performance over the long run.  To me, the fact that finance-types with all their discomfort for the touchy-feely are coming to terms with the limitations of models that are used without ongoing and serious debate about the beliefs that underpin them is a glimmer of hope in an otherwise lemming-like scenario.

This set of observations is closely related to an earlier blog post about how sometimes innovation is based on recovering truths that have been forgotten or discarded and then recovered.  I labeled it “recursive innovation.”   Recursive innovation and what might be called “frame-breaking innovation” share the elusive requirement to adopt a non-mainstream perspective and see where it leads.  But, it’s pretty lonely to break from the pack.

If I had known then what I know now, when my mother asked me whether I would jump off a bridge if my friends did, I would clearly have answered “yes.”  (Rather than try exceedingly hard to justify whatever behavior I had engaged in that crossed some line.)  When practices are ingrained and wide-spread, when they are the received wisdom of an industry, it is nearly impossible to dislodge them.  Even when the facts and results argue against them.  Unless and until, of course, things fall apart.

Sources:

Collaboration is Powerful Medicine

True collaboration involves a team in which authority relationships are flat rather than hierarchical.  For this reason, true collaboration cannot take place without every team member having open access to all information.  Otherwise, the relationship is not flat. True collaboration also requires belief that the shared information is accurate and complete.  True collaboration requires trust. While these requirements may seem obvious, they are not easy to meet for most organizations that seek to increase collaboration among employees and other stakeholders. So why go to the trouble?  Because, it seems that true collaboration is as powerful as taking the right medicine when it comes to improving outcomes.

OpenNotes, a collaborative research project that invites patients to view and ultimately contribute to writing their medical records, is trying to determine whether collaborative interaction (between the patient and healthcare provider) with the information in individual health records can create “knowledge-medicine” that positively impacts actual health.

The theory being tested is that collaboration – merging divergent perspectives among parties interested in achieving a mutual goal, interacting in a flat relationship with open access to complete information – will yield actionable knowledge held with high conviction. Based on this high conviction knowledge, behaviors (decisions and actions) and outcomes will be positively affected. That is, what I am labeling “true collaboration” can produce a health impact similar to medicine.

The transition to electronic health records which will hold legible, accessible content has the power to change the perception of who rightfully owns the information. Although individuals technically own their medical records, gaining access to them has been challenging at best. A doctor’s handwritten notes scrawled in the standard joke of indecipherable physician scribble sets up a barrier of privacy that feels as if it goes in the opposite direction – as if the notes belong to the physician rather than the patient. When medical information is stored and accessed in the same way as financial information, it will level the playing field, creating the expectation that this information rightfully belongs to the individual and is being shared with the healthcare provider. In the OpenNotes experiment, the combination of the patient’s ability to access information directly, removing the healthcare provider as a gatekeeper, coupled with the ability of the entire health team and the patient to review the information together builds trust that the information is accurate and complete, and flattens the authority hierarchy, creating the conditions for true collaboration.

The emphasis of the OpenNotes project is on improving patient outcomes by changing patient behavior.  But there are tantalizing hints that it will also transform the healthcare providers’ practices as well.  One physician is quoted as saying: “’It might be better to say the patient is ’20 percent over ideal body weight’ rather than ‘a jovial obese man came into my clinic,’….” because using the term obese risks alienating the patient.  But changing how physicians document what they observe subtly alters the very act of observing.  It forces the physician to view healthcare as a process that involves human beings (both patients and healthcare providers) who need to be engaged in ways that will actually alter behaviors over time.  The patient needs more specificity to understand what is required (reducing weight by 20 percent) and the physician needs to consider how best to motivate productive behavior change.

An article on placebo research (see below) suggests why viewing healthcare as a human-centered process is necessary:

There has always been a distinction between disease and illness.  Disease is a biological condition that we have historically treated with drugs, surgery, and other technological solutions.  Illness, on the other hand, defines the context of a medical encounter, including the relationship between doctor and patient…[It] is essential to consider both the science and art of medicine – to think about diseases as illnesses, and not to rely solely on short-term, high-tech solutions.

Of course, the OpenNotes endeavor is fraught with concerns:

Will physicians’ notes change if they know patients are reading them? [I think so, but the question is, will they change for the better?]  Will patients withhold information they don’t want to see recorded? [The classic "knowledge is power" problem.]  Will they be more likely to seek a second or third opinion?” [Driving up costs at a time when this is precisely the opposite of what is needed.]

In addition to improving health outcomes, true collaboration needs to do it along classical economic improvement dimensions – better, faster, cheaper, less risky.  At present, whether it can achieve improved health outcomes faster, cheaper and with less risk remains unclear. But, the OpenNotes project sounds a hopeful note – with a nod towards not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good – stating that this collaboration is “…designed to help more people than it hurts, but… medicines are never perfect.” The reason to sit up and take notice of initiatives like OpenNotes is that the power of true collaboration to change behaviors and alter outcomes extends well beyond the boundaries of individual health to the health of all of the organizational systems on which our livelihoods depend.

 

Sources:

  • “Project Puts Records in the Patient’s Hands,” Roni Caryn Rabin, The New York Times, Tuesday, January 10, 2012 page D6.
  • “The Power of Nothing, Michael Specter,” The New Yorker, December 12, 2011.

 

Addendum:

The article on placebo research was fascinating in its own right.  Below is a brief snippet of what intrigued me:

The Program in Placebo Studies and the Therapeutic Encounter is a Harvard-sponsored institute that is studying the role of placebos in clinical practice.  And what, at the end of the day, is a placebo but trust in the information about a medical intervention that alters patients’ perceptions and, in some cases the biochemistry, of illness?  Placebos are mind-boggling to contemplate, because many times they represent false knowledge.  Patients believe that a medical intervention (a pill, injection, salve, a procedure) is designed to alleviate some discomforting aspect of their condition.  This belief in or expectation of a particular outcome triggers the body to contribute to the anticipated outcome.  For example, on being told that they are receiving high doses of morphine (when in fact they are receiving saline) some patients experience pain relief.   The belief that they are receiving morphine triggers their bodies to produce endorphins (the body’s natural opiates).  But even without deception, it seems that placebos provide a benefit.   Recent research involves disclosure to the patient that the therapeutic treatment is a placebo along with what is known about the benefits of placebos.  This research demonstrates that even when patients know that they are receiving a placebo, many derive a positive health benefit.

 

The Death of BIG Ideas

Late this summer, I read a column in the The New York Times Sunday Review by Neal Gabler that drove me mad.   Gabler believes that Americans do not think anymore and, as a result, we no longer formulate BIG ideas that have the power to transfix and transform society.  In his editorial, Mr. Gabler points to an earlier time – pre-social networking and pre-Googling – when BIG thinkers were cultural icons – Albert Einstein, Betty Friedan, Marshal McLuhan. He makes the rather strange point that “a generation ago, these men [I assume he means “people” since he includes a few women in his examples of BIG thinkers] would have made their way into popular magazines and onto television screens.”  He seems to mean that we no longer want to hear what scientists have to say if we can’t consume their ideas in a Tweet-stream.

But, I wonder about that when I watch the Daily Show or the Colbert Report with my 20-year-old son and we are listening to the US Ambassador to the UN discuss why the UN matters to the US or a Senator discuss the debt ceiling debate. Okay, okay – it’s a six minute interview with snarky humor laced throughout, but that’s about three minutes longer than the so-called major networks’ coverage of important topics and about as long as NPR gives a story (and that’s called an “in-depth” treatment). These are BIG problems calling for BIG ideas and they are not solely problems of the marketplace, the one domain in which Gabler acknowledges that BIG ideas are clearly being born.

But, if Gabler gives, he also takes away.

“Entrepreneurs have plenty of ideas, and some….have come up with some brilliant ideas in the ‘inventional’ sense of the word. Still, while these ideas may change the way we live, they rarely transform the way we think. They are material, not ideational.”

I have to say, that I am still trying to make sense of this assertion. It seems to me that many commercial inventions do, in fact, change the way we think. They create new frameworks which change how we see things and this is precisely how understanding is transformed. The fact that these ideas are embodied in a product or a service (are experienced in the corporeal world) does not – to my mind, at least – negate their “ideational” impact. And, the notion that ideas in the marketplace and ideas in the… “non-marketplace(?)” are fundamentally different also makes me wince. Are there any corners of human activity that are free from the curse of “monetization?” The marketplace subsidizes some pockets of activity, insulating them from its daily concerns – non-profits and government – but they are not immune or outside of its reach (ask any university that relied on its endowment funds for operations in 2009 or NGO that relied on donors).

Finally Gabler goes full bore and lets loose about what he calls our “post-idea” world. This is the world in which we are more concerned with amassing information to stay informed than to make sense of the world. We live in a gap between apprehending and comprehending the world in Gabler’s terms. Reducing our expression to 140 characters or video clips and restricting it to our circle of online friends (even if they number in the millions as they do for Lady Gaga and Ashton Kutcher) traps us in an endless loop of opinions which are the antithesis of BIG thinking.

I admit that I find it impossible to keep up with the flow of information that comes my way. But this was the case 20 years ago – before the Internet, before Kindles, before iPhones and iPads and netbooks and Blackberries and instant messaging and Twitter. It was nice not to be so accessible, so 24/7, but it didn’t make it any easier to be thoughtful.

In some of the work that I do, BIG ideas are afoot and they are engaging many people in provocative and energetic discussions that seek to enlarge our understanding of what it means to live in an increasingly inter-connected world in which seemingly small choices ripple outward with surprisingly large impact over long periods of time. Strands of thinking that come many different fields – complexity theory, evolutionary biology, particle physics, finance, philanthropy – are being woven together to form new ways of seeing, of understanding our world.

My children’s education at the elementary, middle and high school levels is far more concerned with understanding than it is with simply acquiring information – a marked contrast to my own experience. And, my kids are every bit as connected 24/7 via text messages and video chats as any of their peers. Yet somehow, BIG ideas still entrance them as they struggle to make sense of their world in all its close immensity. I am not a betting person, but I would still bet that there are BIG ideas out there that are heading our way and that as a species our drive to make meaning will prevail.

And, that’s as a good a reason as any on this Thanksgiving Holiday to be thankful.

 

Source: “The Elusive Big Idea,” Neal Gabler, Sunday Review, The New York Times, August 14, 2011.

The Future Just Creeps On In

There’s a big ol’ hole that’s gone right through the sole of this old shoe
And the water on the ground, ain’t got no place else it found
So it’s only got one thing left to do
Just creep on in, creep on in
And once it has begun, it won’t stop until it’s done, sneaking in
(“Creeping In” by Dolly Parton)

“Our imagination is stretched to the utmost, not, as in fiction, to imagine things which are not really there, but just to comprehend those things which are there.”  Richard Feynman

Last week, as I emerged from Penn Station in New York City, I strolled up Seventh Avenue and out of the corner of my eye caught sight of the large Borders book store that commands the corner of Seventh Avenue and 32nd Street.  What flashed through my mind at that moment was “I never thought I’d live to see the end of books.”  As a kid, I’d spend the entire day closeted in my room reading a book with a dictionary beside me on the bed. I loved unlocking the meaning of big, prepossessing words as I made my way through stories that were just a little too difficult for me.  Looking back on it, I see that I was making a kind of intellectual journey through worlds that were otherwise inaccessible to me as a child of Jewish middleclass suburban Baltimore.  Later on, in my undergraduate years, I used to sit in the Divinity School Library at Duke University, my Biblical Hebrew text before me, surrounded by dictionaries and concordances – all in an effort to untangle a foreign, dead language and try to reconstruct a way of experiencing the world that could only be understood through surviving fragments of text.  When I got out of college and no longer had to read what was on a syllabus, I went on wild reading binges, foraging through the St. Mark’s Bookshop in New York City.  For me, reading has always been another way of seeing and experiencing the world and books have been my passport.

But, now I own a Kindle and my dictionary is no longer beside me.  Instead, I click my Kindle’s home key and enter the word I don’t know to instantly have it defined by my favorite dictionary (the OED), and then click back to exactly where I stopped reading.  I made the transition to the Kindle with some trepidation – after all, I LOVE books.  I had about three days of feeling very strange about not flipping a page and the heft of the reading device not feeling right and not really liking the percent completion display which was my only way of knowing how much I’d read and how much more there was to go.  But then, that was that, and I was on my way to loving that my dictionary was right there, all the time.  When I saw the Borders bookstore in New York City, I had just finished reading an article in The New York Times about the coming-to-me-soon future in which I would be able to borrow books from my library on my Kindle.  In fact, if I owned a Nook or a Sony e-Reader, I could do that already.  In my soon-to-be future, I wouldn’t have to go to my library to borrow a book.  I already don’t have to go to a bookstore to buy one and I don’t have to pay at all for classics like my favorite Edith Wharton or to finally read Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein.  The future has already arrived and I am smack in the middle of it, I just hadn’t noticed.   

Yesterday, I read another article in The New York Times about supercomputers used for scientific visualization that are called macroscopes.  Macroscopes are “…a new class of computer-based scientific instruments…composite tools, with different kinds of physical presences that have such powerful and flexible software programs that they become a complete scientific workbench.”  These supercomputers make “…it possible to uncover phenomena and processes that in the past have been, ‘too great, slow or complex for the human eye and mind to notice and comprehend.’”  Macroscopes can see the future creeping in on you in ways that human beings cannot. 

What’s also amazing about these supercomputers is that the technology itself is affecting the very nature of the scientific research process.  From the lone independent researcher toiling away in isolation, it is now more likely that hundreds or even thousands of researchers in disparate geographies and ranging across many different disciplines collaborate on and jointly publish research, no longer isolated, but intensively connected through these supercomputers.  And the supercomputers themselves are not one piece of equipment or software housed in one place, but can themselves be collaborations of different pieces of equipment and applications in far-flung corners of the world.  The unrelenting force of collaboration – called the “killer app” by one scientist in the article – is also making what seemed like a risky approach, developing software in an open-source mode, now seem like the only way forward.  Technology has managed to destroy a culture and build a new one, in this case, seemingly without the calamity that accompanies most destruction. 

The same is going on in the organizations where we work.  They are already different, but we are swept along in the currents and can’t really appreciate the full extent of how much the future is already here until, perhaps, we read an article about borrowing books from a library on an e-Reader without visiting the library and catch a glimpse of a Borders bookstore on the street corner 15 minutes later.

 Sources:

  • “Digging Deeper, Seeing Farther:  Supercomputers Alter Science,”  John Markoff, The New York Times, April 26, 2011.
  • “Kindle Users to Be Able to Borrow Library E-Books,” Julie Bosman, The New York Times, April 21, 2011.

Dessert, Happiness, and Innovation

Reading about the dessert revolution that was sparked in Barcelona a decade ago made me think about how limitations and the lack of them combine in subtle ways to unleash innovation.  Around the same time, I had come across the concept of synthetic happiness which also examines the interplay of limitation and freedom.  I began to wonder:  How much freedom and how much limitation create the optimal conditions for innovation?  Are happiness and innovation somehow related?

The dessert revolution was kick-started by the molecular gastronomy movement – the ascendance of chemistry in the professional kitchen.  Molecular gastronomy has been a rule-breaking phenomenon.  Rules like the order of tastes, flavors, and sensations in a meal: the rules that say savory comes before sweet and hot before cold.  Molecular gastronomy has appropriated the tools of industrial food-making and applied them to haute cuisine.  Tools that extract essential oils from fruits and flowers and tools that blow air into liquids to create foams are used to transform food and the experience of eating.  Suddenly, main courses are sweet and cold while desserts are savory and hot (one holy grail – hot ice cream).  Textures and flavors upend expectations and suddenly eating dinner is an adventure.

What is most interesting about the culinary transformation in Barcelona is that it emerged from the realm of the pastry chef in regions of the world where the pastry chef does not dominate the food culture and from individuals who are mostly the younger or youngest sibling in a family business.  As the younger or youngest sibling, these men were forced into the pastry chef role because it has lower prestige; the higher prestige roles went to the older siblings.  In this region of Spain, the culture of dessert had been limited to a few custards and cakes.  It is the antithesis of places such as France or Germany with dessert traditions that span tarts, creams, cakes, cookies, and more.   Stuck in the pastry chef role, but unburdened by a well-developed dessert culture, these young pastry chefs experienced both limitation and freedom and an explosion of wildly innovative desserts have emerged from their kitchens and spilled into the rest of the meal, putting Barcelona on the culinary map.   

What, you might ask, does innovation in Barcelona’s dessert culture have to do with happiness? 

Let’s start with a definition of happiness that comes from Dan Gilbert, author of Stumbling on Happiness. Gilbert differentiates between natural and synthetic happiness.  Natural happiness is how you feel when you get what you want – when you are not forced to face limitations.  Synthetic happiness is how you feel when you change your view of how much it really mattered that you didn’t get what you wanted – when you are face to face with a big solid wall that stands between you and your aspirations and there is no way around it.  In Gilbert’s TED talk (I encourage you to listen to it), one of his main points is that we believe that natural happiness is better than synthetic happiness. But evidence suggests that both kinds of happiness make us equally happy.  That turns out to be a very good thing because most of the happiness we experience is synthetic.  Few of us go through life without experiencing setbacks or bumping into limits. 

Gilbert then moves on to describe the series of non-conscious cognitive processes that allow human beings to revise our view of the meaning of certain experiences.  Gilbert calls this capacity a psychological immune system and it is essential to synthesizing happiness.  We might not need these processes so much if we weren’t also blessed with a capacity to simulate experiences before we have them thanks to our frontal cortex.  This unique aspect of our brain structure allows us to imagine outcomes from situations before we actually experience them and guides us to make certain choices.  For example, presented with a choice between eating mud or a nice warm buttery croissant, we will choose to eat the croissant because we imagine that we will be happier doing so (good choice!).  However, there are many more instances where what we imagine will make us happy and how happy we report feeling after we have had the experience suggest that we really don’t have a clue. 

Gilbert cites several different experiments – most of them share similar characteristics.  Groups that have what most people would call a lousy experience (becoming a paraplegic) and groups that have a terrific experience (winning the lottery) are basically as happy or unhappy as they were before the experience after some time has passed (sometimes as little as 3 months).   People who were generally happy before becoming paraplegics dig something positive out of the experience as awful as it is.  They synthesize happiness (make lemonade out of lemons).   Even in less dire circumstances, we tend to be poor predictors of what will make us happy.  And, as mentioned earlier, we tend to believe that natural happiness – not having to deal with limitations, having ultimate freedom – is better than synthetic happiness.  But, it turns out that this is not the case.

To demonstrate this fact, Gilbert describes another set of experiments in which students are allowed to select a print of a photograph that they can keep.  (I’m going to simplify the experiment design here, go to his TED talk for the more complete description.)  Some students are told that they cannot change their minds – they must keep the photo print they choose.  Other students are allowed to have several days to think it over.  You can probably already guess which group turns out to be happiest with their paintings several weeks later.  Yes, it’s the group that didn’t get to think it over; the group that had to deal with limitations.  Freedom to choose – the ability to make up your mind and change your mind – may be the friend of natural happiness but it is the enemy of synthetic happiness.

When we think about innovation we often imagine that it requires a completely unbounded intellectual space in which we are free to explore anything and everything, a space in which we will find something new and exciting.  Gilbert says that this is the prevailing view of natural happiness – it is something that we must find.  Somehow we believe that this approach – that of seeking in complete freedom – and the happiness and innovations that emerge from it are the best kind.  But what if another equally valid and productive path to innovation is more comparable to synthetic happiness?  The same path that the young pastry chefs in Barcelona experienced – faced with limitations and only afforded certain degrees of freedom.  That would be especially good news since few organizations operate without limitations.  Start-ups lack resources and established organizations have brands to protect.   How we synthesize happiness might provide an alternate way of thinking about how to pursue innovation – without contriving situations that bear little resemblance to the realities that most organizations experience.  If natural innovation requires being out of the box, perhaps synthetic innovation can be produced inside the box as long as the lid is open.  And, it is highly likely that they are both equally good kinds of innovation that will lead to happy results.

Sources:

Bye Bye Business Model

It seems a fitting way to wrap up 2010 by looking at business models that are on the way out as we head into 2011.

Business models change without warning to those who are invested in them.  Standing outside of an industry looking in, it isn’t hard to see when big changes are in the works or to conclude that the way things are is not going to continue.  In a conversation with a former Chief Investment Officer of a foundation a few weeks ago I heard the phrase “expected surprise” which I think nicely expresses what I’m talking about.  While it may be close to impossible to predict when a change will occur, it’s not at all difficult to predict with certainty that it will occur.  Yet somehow, the argument among those cashing in on an existing business model shifts to knowing when it will occur which has the effect of kicking the can down the road.  If change isn’t imminent, then more important and pressing things take precedence, always.  Which is why when the change inevitably comes, it seems to have been utterly unpredictable and unknowable – a complete (unexpected) surprise. 

Story #1:  The book publishing industry.

The paper-based, time-intensive, highly complex process that brings us books has been convulsing for many years now, but the glue that has bound writers and editors and publishers and publicists and book sellers and even e-sellers of books and e-books is rapidly losing its stickiness.  In August 2010, Seth Godin, a prolific, best-selling author, announced his departure from his longtime publisher, Pearson PLC’s Penguin Group because “…his blog attracts an estimated 438,000 followers…” and that means he knows who reads his books.  “’Publishers provide a huge resource to authors who don’t know who reads their books…”, but that isn’t the case for Mr. Godin.  What are Mr. Godin’s plans for the future?  He’ll hire his own editor and someone who can format his book for electronic distribution and then, it’s up to him to decide how he wants to “package” up the work, how to price it, and how to sell it.  

While Mr. Godin thinks that there still is role for publishers, not everyone agrees.  An e-book publisher, Mark Coker of Smashwords, says that not only will major authors consider this approach, but also those mid-list authors who don’t get much marketing support from publishers.   Those who are not on any list are already in the business of self-publishing, self-promoting and self-distributing.  If top-list, mid-list, and not-on-a-list writers don’t need publishers – who does?

 Story #2:  Knowledge creation.

That’s right – knowledge creation.   When the developers of new knowledge (scholars and researchers) seek to publish their work in career-making academic or professional journals – the ones that christen what is and what is not knowledge – they participate in another time-intensive, complex, opaque process – peer review.  But even in the change-resistant halls of liberal arts academe, a big change has come to the business model of peer-reviewed articles.  A crowd-sourced approach has emerged.   

The Shakespeare Quarterly “posted online four essays not yet accepted for publication, and a core group of experts…were invited to post their signed comments on the Web site MediaCommons, a scholarly digital network.”  This process contrasts with the traditional method in which a hand-selected and small group of academics evaluate submissions anonymously over a period of time which can drag on for years.   And how did what is now regarded as the traditional process come to be?  Like so many traditions which are resistant to change, “[it]…is not so much a gold standard but an effective accommodation to the needs of the field.”   

Yet, the belief persists that democratizing the peer review is not in the best interests of academics.  Many hold fast to the dogma that only experts in the field can truly evaluate whether work makes a significant and unique contribution to the field.  This belief is anchored by the reality that to receive tenure, scholars must be published in peer-reviewed journals.  Only when the authors of the articles that underwent this new process were assured that, if accepted, their pieces would be counted as “peer-reviewed” were they willing to participate.   (Much like the process of ending foot-binding in China, the system (a set of practices) has to change in order to make change stick.   See a previous blog post Formula for Positive Change.)

Story #3:  Manufacturing by printer.

Order of magnitude cost reductions, extreme customization, and just-in-time production – the 3-D printer is bringing all of this to the manufacture of prosthetics, architectural models, furniture, fixtures, cars, and houses.  3-D printers deposit layers of material, often plastic or metal, one on top of the other, controlled by algorithms, to build up an object, layer by layer. 

Bespoke Innovations will use the technology to create customized prosthetics at about one-tenth the cost of traditional prosthetics which are, by comparison, generic templates.  Contour Crafting is using the technology to transform the business of building homes.   A 3-D printer that sits on a tractor trailer does away with most of the manual labor involved in the construction of the structure of the house by not only fabricating walls, but also structural supports and conduits for electrical, plumbing, and heating and cooling systems in one pass.  The Urbee is a completely printed car.  Kor Ecologic, the venture behind the Urbee, is using a volunteer-based, collective approach to bring the car to the market (you can make a donation via PayPal to fund the project).  The president and chief technology officer of Kor Ecologic (Jim Kor) says that the 3D printing technology “lets us eliminate tooling, machining, and handwork, and it brings incredible efficiency when a design change is needed…If you can get to a pilot run without any tooling, you have advantages.”

As the software required to create the design programs plummets in cost and the cost of accessing the printers puts them in reach of more commercial applications, a new business ecosystem is developing in which designers use software to encode their visions and then send these programs to printers whose equipment produces them.  As entire classes of labor costs are removed from the equation, the dynamics of labor cost arbitrage are rebalanced making outsourcing to cheap labor countries which must factor in shipping costs less attractive.  What has seemed inexorable, the United States’ inability to retain its position as a dominant player in the manufacture of goods, might not be as much of a foregone conclusion as it once appeared.

Conclusion

These stories about systems that are in the midst of or on the cusp of radical disruption are all stories about expected surprise.  If you are willing to move outside of the system of which you are a part, and look at it as if you were an outsider, no matter what system you are part of, you would most likely see signs that big changes are coming.  If you subscribe to the idea of the expected surprise, then you know what happens to the rest of a business model when one key element undergoes a transformation. It’s like dominoes that are lined up in such a way that they connect ever so slightly with one another – when one falls, the others must follow.

Sources:

  • “Author to Bypass Publisher for Fans,” Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg, The New York Times, Tuesday, August 24, 2010.
  • “Scholars Test a Web Alternative to the Venerable Peer Review,” Patricia Cohen, The New York Times, Tuesday, August 24, 2010.
  • “3D Printing Spurs a Manufacturing Revolution,” Ashlee Vance, September 13, 2010, sourced on 12/17/10 at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/technology/14print.html
  • “The Urbee Hybrid – the first 3D printed car,” Ariel Schwartz, October 29, 2010, sourced on 12/17/10 at :   http://www.fastcompany.com/1698943/the-urbee-hybrid-the-first-car-to-have-its-body-3-d-printed

Formula for Positive Change (Creating the New Normal)

If you’re PieLab, a café in Greensboro, Alabama that is the brain-child of design collective Project M, the formula for creating positive change in the world is simple:

PieLab = a neutral place + a slice of pie = conversation = ideas + design = Positive Change

Initially, what grabbed my attention about PieLab wasn’t the formula for positive change, but the fact that PieLab was envisioned as a kind of pop-up community center.  I had just come back from facilitating a visioning workshop where among the many ideas that were explored, the notion of pop-up facilities (inspired by the increasing prevalence of pop-up retail clothing stores and restaurants that have become possible because of the excess of empty retail space) was bandied about. 

The article suggests that applying the term pop-up “…implies that a concept may be too cutting edge to sustain.”   And, in the case of PieLab, that proved to be true.  PieLab’s story in a nutshell involved a mostly young group of visionaries who aspired to do good, descended on a disadvantaged town, and earnestly set about working their mojo.  They scored some early, modest successes, but failed to grasp the broader context in which they were trying to make change.  As a result, they slipped up and were forced to adjust to the reality that change is a long-haul commitment.  Most of the original team left and PieLab is now known informally as Pie – operating as a traditional cafe that is more integrated into the social and economic fabric of Greensboro.

I think that what the PieLab founders got wrong in their formula for positive change is that it doesn’t capture the element of the long-haul, uncertain process.  The end result of the formula is not positive change, but rather, the potential for positive change.   With that alteration, I think that the formula captures most of the necessary ingredients for change.

I set about applying it to my experience running a successful visioning workshop with a group of people who had never worked together before.  First, I thought about how a workshop devoted to organizational change and a café devoted to social change are similar and came up with these equivalencies:

  • PieLab = Safe, Secure Place/Space
  • Slice of Pie = Something to share/bond over/experience together
  • Conversation = High trust exchange
  • Design = Problem-focused questioning

My revised formula is this:

Workshop = Safe, Secure Place/Space + Something to experience together = High trust exchange + Problem-focused questioning =Potential for Positive Change

If it’s possible to create the potential for positive change (clearly in more environments than a workshop), what has to be in place to realize it? 

A special issue of the The New York Times Magazine devoted to women’s empowerment can be viewed as a series of inquiries into creating positive social change.  The approach that brought about the relatively swift (over the span of one generation) end to the practice of foot-binding in China is one notable example. 

 From my perspective, these are the major factors that led to changing the long-standing practice:

  • Understanding the larger system of which the practice/behavior is a part.
  • Creating institutions that support the changed behavior.
  • Positioning the change as outgrowth of the group’s natural positive progress, rather than a corrective response to failure.
  • Luck (or timing or patience)

Here’s a very condensed version of how the practice of foot-binding ceased in China:  Those advocating against foot-binding at the outset were Christian missionaries.  They invested the time necessary to understand the Chinese culture, learning the language and studying the texts essential to formal Chinese education.  The anti-foot-binding advocates formed relationships with influencers – leaders in the Chinese political and social structure.  China while continuing to believe that it was superior to Western civilizations had suffered military defeats at the hands of Westerners which caused some of its leaders to think about engaging with the West so that China would be better able to deal with global challenges.  

The anti-foot-binding advocates shared information from the West that convinced these leaders that Westerners thought that the practice of foot-binding was a sign of cultural and intellectual backwardness.   These leaders realized that such opinions would create a political disadvantage for the Chinese and they became vocal opponents of the foot-binding.  However, foot-binding was a requirement for marriage in China – so part of changing its practice had to include changing the practices surrounding marriage.  The anti-foot-binding advocates worked tirelessly to form a community of parents who pledged that they would not bind their daughters’ feet and they would not permit their sons to marry women with bound feet.   In this way, the anti-foot-binding advocates created a “new normal” which did not so much disrupt society as hurry it along in a positive direction.  Of course, none of this would have been possible if these factors had not occurred at the same time – which you can view as a matter of luck, brilliant timing, or long-suffering patience.

A formula shorthand that sums up how to realize the potential for positive change:

Realizing the Potential for Positive Change =  PieLab + No More Foot-binding in China = High trust exchange + problem-focused questioning + understand the system + the right change agents + luck = The New Normal

Sources:

  • Project M website
  • Pie + Design / Change, John T. Edge, The New York Times Magazine, October 10, 2010
  • The Art of Social Change, Kwame Anthony Appiah, The New York Times Magazine, October 24, 2010